UK Plug-In Solar Savings Calculator
How much could a plug-in solar kit realistically generate and save at your address, and how long would it take to pay back? This calculator works it out from your panel size, your region, how the panel is mounted, and your own electricity rate, using irradiance data from the EU Joint Research Centre PVGIS tool rather than a rule of thumb. Every assumption and the exact formula are shown below the result, and this calculator does not sell, recommend or price any product.
Before you use this: plug-in solar is not yet lawful to use in the UK. SI 2026/848 changes that from 27 August 2026. This calculator models the scheme that will apply from that date, so you can plan ahead — it is not an invitation to buy and connect a system before then. See the current legal status for the full picture.
That is above the UK plug-in solar DC panel cap of 2,000 W. The DESNZ Interim Product Specification does not allow a plug-in system this size, so we are not going to estimate one — doing so would model something you cannot lawfully install. Reduce the panel wattage, or see what changes on 27 August 2026 for the full rule.
How we got this number: 0.80 kWp effective (from 800 W of panel) x 960.64 kWh/kWp/yr (Midlands (Birmingham)) x 1.00 (south-facing) x 1.00 (good - near-optimal angle, unshaded) = 769 kWh/yr, plus or minus 27 kWh from year-to-year weather.
The assumptions and the formula, in full
Every number above comes from the steps below. Nothing is hidden in the script — if a figure looks wrong, you can check the arithmetic by hand, or re-run the underlying PVGIS query yourself.
1. How much sunlight your region gets
Generation figures come from the European Commission Joint Research Centre’s PVGIS tool, queried directly for each region below (not estimated, not taken from a third party): 1 kWp, free-standing mounting, 30° tilt, due south, 14% system loss, PVGIS-SARAH2 radiation data, 2005-2020. A flat 0° panel at the same London point returns a noticeably lower 851.69 kWh/kWp/yr, which is why we do not use 0° as the reference; PVGIS own calculated optimum for this latitude is closer to 40° at due south (1,028.71 kWh/kWp/yr for London). We use 30°, below that true optimum, because a plug-in kit is usually fence-, rail- or ground-mounted rather than roof-pitched at an installer-chosen ideal angle — a slightly shallower reference is more representative than the best case.
| Region | kWh per kWp per year | Typical year-to-year range |
|---|---|---|
| South East England (London) | 1,017 | 978–1,055 |
| South West England (Bristol) | 1,014 | 978–1,049 |
| Midlands (Birmingham) | 961 | 927–994 |
| Northern England (Manchester) | 880 | 848–911 |
| Wales (Cardiff) | 1,021 | 982–1,060 |
| Scotland (Edinburgh) | 905 | 871–940 |
| Northern Ireland (Belfast) | 910 | 878–942 |
Figures at 1 kWp; this calculator multiplies by your effective system size. Example
request behind the first row: re.jrc.ec.europa.eu … PVcalc
(only lat/lon change between regions). The range column is PVGIS own interannual
standard deviation — real weather variation from year to year, not a margin we added. Retrieved 2026-08-15.
2. Orientation and mounting angle
The orientation and mounting-angle bands are also PVGIS pulls, not guesses. Holding London’s location and the 30° tilt fixed and changing only the compass direction: south-facing is the 1,016.57 kWh/kWp/yr reference above; east- or west-facing returns 808.42 (80% of south); north-facing returns 588.97 (58% of south). The mounting-angle band changes both the angle and the assumed system loss together, as a combined proxy for a less-than-ideal real-world setup: the “Average” band uses a 10° tilt and 20% loss (862.43 kWh/kWp/yr, 85% of the Good band); the “Poor” band uses a flat 0° tilt and 30% loss (693.24 kWh/kWp/yr, 68% of the Good band). PVGIS needs a full horizon profile to model shading precisely, which this calculator does not collect, so the mounting-angle band is a stated simplification, not a measurement of your actual site.
3. What counts as a saving
A plug-in system in this size band has no export arrangement, so on current guidance any generation you do not use the moment it is produced is worth nothing in this estimate — there is no payment for it. Your saving is the electricity you generate AND use at the same time, valued at your import rate. This calculator uses your “share of usage in daylight” input as a direct stand-in for the share of generation you actually use, which is a simplification stated plainly rather than hidden: a small plug-in system often generates less than a home’s baseline daytime load (fridge, router, standby devices), which tends to push real self-consumption higher than this simple proxy suggests. Treat the saving estimate as cautious rather than generous, for that reason. For the fuller argument and the same method in prose, see Plug-In Solar Costs and Payback in the UK.
4. The UK limits this calculator enforces
Per the DESNZ Interim Product Specification version 2.0, named directly in SI 2026/848: a 800 VA / 3.5 A ceiling on rated AC output at the inverter, and a 2,000 W cap on total panel (DC) capacity. Enter more than 2,000 W and this calculator refuses to produce a number, because that would model a system the specification does not allow. Between 800 W and 2,000 W of panel, the inverter is still the ceiling on what reaches your home, so the estimate is capped at 800 W of effective generating capacity — the extra panel mostly helps maintain output on cloudy days and at low sun angles, rather than raising the best-case number shown here. Above 960 W of panel, the specification recommends a professional wiring check. Separately, current guidance limits most households to one device in total regardless of how many circuits you have — see the legal status page for the detail. This calculator does not model battery storage: the UK definition excludes it entirely.
The exact formula
- Effective capacity = the lower of your panel watts and 800 W.
- Generation (central) = effective capacity (kW) × regional kWh/kWp/yr × orientation multiplier × mounting-angle multiplier.
- Generation range = the same, using the regional figure minus/plus its year-to-year standard deviation.
- Used (self-consumed) = generation × your daylight-usage share.
- Saving = used × your electricity rate (p/kWh ÷ 100). No export payment is added.
- Simple payback = your system cost ÷ saving (only shown once you enter a cost).
This is an estimate, not a quote. Real output depends on the weather in any given year, how precisely your panel is angled and sited, and how your household actually uses power hour to hour — all of which can move your real result outside the range shown, especially on the downside if you are more shaded than the band you picked. Nothing here is a guarantee, and nothing here recommends a specific product.
Sources
- European Commission Joint Research Centre — PVGIS (regional generation and the orientation/mounting-angle bands, queried directly, 2026-08-15)
- Ofgem — Energy price cap unit rates and standing charges (26.11p/kWh Direct Debit rate, retrieved 2026-08-15)
- legislation.gov.uk — SI 2026/848 (made 16 July 2026, in force 27 August 2026)
- DESNZ — Plug-in solar: regulatory amendment and interim product specification (800 VA/3.5 A, 2,000 W, 960 W and one-per-household figures)
For the reasoning behind this method in full prose, see Plug-In Solar Costs and Payback in the UK. For what plug-in solar actually is, see How does plug-in solar work. For the legal position and the exact date it changes, see the current legal status.